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"Demand Solutions Forecast Management opens up a whole new world for supply chain
management - better demand planning, improved inventory planning and, ultimately, increased efficiency and profits."
Source : Demand Solutions
Case Study: Peerless Pump
Forecast Accuracy is also known as :
Forecasting,
Calculating Forecast Accuracy,
Demand Forecast Accuracy,
Measure Forecast Accuracy,
Review Forecasting Accuracy,
Forecast Accuracy Improvement,
Forecasting Accuracy Methods,
Increase Forecast Accuracy,
Sample Forecast Accuracy,
Equal Forecast Accuracy,
Tests Forecast Accuracy,
Analysts Forecast Accuracy,
Assessing Forecast Accuracy,
Modeling Forecast Accuracy,
Uncertain Forecast Accuracy,
Forecast Accuracy Results,
about Forecast Accuracy,
Revenue Forecast Accuracy,
Planning Forecast Accuracy,
Track Forecast Accuracy,
Record Forecast Accuracy,
Forecast Accuracy Data,
Early Forecasting Accuracy,
Search Forecast Accuracy,
Forecasting Accuracy Assessment,
Forecast Accuracy Statistics,
Forecasting Accuracy Assortments,
Documents Forecast Accuracy,
Statistical Forecasting,
Forecast Accuracy Calculations,
Alternate Forecast Measures,
Supply Chain Forecasting,
Estimation,
Prediction,
Accuracy Method,
Business Forecasting,
Econometric Forecasting,
Economic Forecasting,
Forecasting Adjustment.
Peerless Pump has been designing, engineering and manufacturing pumps for
more than 80 years. Although its first pumps were used to irrigate orange groves
in California, its pumps today are used for a wide spectrum of applications
across the globe. Some of the tallest skyscrapers in the world rely on Peerless
Pump for fire protection including the Taipei 101 in Taiwan (currently the
tallest at 1,667 feet), the Sears Tower in Chicago and the Empire State Building
in New York City. In addition to fire protection, its pumps serve many other
industries including agriculture, process manufacturing, and the massive pumps
that transport safe drinking water to our cities, to name a few. By increasing
forecast accuracy through the use of Demand Solutions, the company has nearly
doubled its sales over the past four years while keeping inventory levels
constant – allowing Peerless to pump up its profits.
Peerless Pump manufactures most of its products at its headquarters in
Indianapolis, Indiana and also has operations in Alabama, Texas and California.
With each location specializing in different pumps, the company can offer a wide
range of products to serve its diverse group of customers. There is no finished
goods inventory; Each pump is made-to-order. To increase production and assembly
efficiency, Peerless Pump’s inventory consists only of the most common
components used in pump production. Prior to Demand Solutions, the company based
component stock levels on historical data as it did not have the ability to
accurately forecast customer demand. The lack of visibility led to a distorted
demand picture that adversely affected profits.
The Turning Point
Since implementation in late 2005, Demand Solutions has unclogged the
company’s profit pump. Greg Brown, Director of Sales and Operations Planning,
remembers feeling slightly skeptical, yet excited when Demand Solutions along
with the company’s sales managers mutually predicted a drastic increase in
customer demand. Based on this forecast, the company decided to add a global
supplier and to make other supply chain improvements to support the expected
increase in demand.
The company uses two methods to determine customer demand: the Demand
Solutions’ forecast and the sales managers’ forecast. Having the dual stream of
information allows Brown to identify the possible discrepancies between the
information and make better forecasting decisions. He determines the forecast
accuracy of the individual methods by comparing their forecasts to actual sales
– coincidently, both Demand Solutions and the sales managers have a 14 percent
mean absolute percent error.
“With the same absolute forecast accuracy percentage error, we knew that the
sales managers’ and Demand Solutions’ growth projections were either 100 percent
right or 100 percent wrong,” says Brown with a laugh.
To Brown’s relief, the projections were accurate and Peerless Pump’s timely
preparations proved to be a worthy investment as it helped the company realize
its growth ambitions. “Demand Solutions has helped us almost double our business
by substantially increasing our forecast accuracy and planning our inventory,”
says Brown. “We have not had to increase inventory levels to support the
increased business; therefore, our inventory turns have increased from six to
nine on this key product line.”
Peer-fect Process
Peerless Pump uses the forecast from Demand Solutions as a basis for its
discussions with its sales managers. Because the company previously could not
accurately forecast customer demand, the sales force did not have an opportunity
to share its valuable insights. Andrew Warrington, Vice President of Business
Development, sees the firsthand results of including market intelligence into
the forecast and agrees completely with Demand Solutions’ belief that people are
smarter than software.
“From a sales perspective, Demand Solutions forecasts what is meaningful to
us,” says Warrington. “I don’t care how complex the forecasting equations are,
if they do not include human instinct and the sales forces’ knowledge, the
forecast will not be right. Demand Solutions combines statistics with reality to
give us a clear view of customer demand.”
Currently, Peerless Pump is in the process of replacing its old ERP system
with SAP and is pleased that Demand Solutions is compatible with any ERP system
because of its import/export functionality. Brown uses this functionality
monthly as he exports the finalized global forecast to the company’s MRP system
to drive the master production and procurement schedules.
Easy Flowing
Along with the financial benefits Peerless Pump has experienced with Demand
Solutions, the planning tool has also facilitated a deeper level of
collaboration within the company. The software’s flexibility and ease of use
have increased the company‘s planning and decision-making efficiency.
“When management develops a new means of how they want to view a forecast
report, I don’t need a programmer to reconfigure the forecast level in Demand
Solutions,” says Brown. “Within a few minutes, I can create new aggregate levels
myself and present the new view.”
“Demand Solutions has helped us almost double our business by
substantially increasing our forecast accuracy and planning our inventory,” says
Brown. “We have not had to increase inventory levels to support the increased
business; therefore, our inventory turns have increased from six to nine on this
key product line.”
Peerless Pump’s management also likes Demand Solutions because of the charts
and graphs it offers. In the past, Brown would have to print several reports and
charts to reference during meetings. Now he uses the actual Demand Solutions
program in real time during teleconferences through GoToMeetings, an online
service similar to Webex, which gives him the ability to display his screen to
everyone in the meeting. The planning tool is intuitive and people who have
never seen it can understand what is on the screen, says Brown. Being able to
quickly and easily see the forecasts for each market segment and physical
territories has encouraged more informed discussions about realistic
opportunities and risks.
Did you know…
Peerless Pumps are used in many well known structures including:
- Taipei 101 (Taiwan)
- Sears Tower (Chicago)
- Jin Mao Building (Shanghai)
- Empire State Building (NYC)
- Aon Centre (Chicago)
- Bank of America Tower (NYC)
- CN Tower (Toronto)
- Wynn Hotel (Las Vegas)
- Trump International Hotel (Chicago)
- Gateway Arch (St. Louis)
- Ferrari (Italy)
- Panama Canal
- Oak Ridge National Lab (Tennessee)
- RCA Dome (Indianapolis Colts stadium)
- Conseco Fieldhouse (Indiana Pacers arena)
- Paul Brown Stadium (Cincinnati Bengals stadium)
- Lucas Oil Stadium (new Indianapolis Colts stadium)
- Several cruise ships
Its pumps range in size:
- Smallest:
- 4-inch diameter
- 20 gallons per minute
- Largest:
- 72-inch diameter
- 110,000 gallons per minute