Event
Summary
[3/23/00]
For the second time in approximately a month, a senior Microsoft executive
has publicly reversed himself, or been reversed by HQ, "before the ink
was dry". In February, it was Chief Software Architect Bill Gates. (Refer
to TEC News Analysis "Microsoft says: Pay No Attention to the Man Behind
the Glasses" for the earlier instance.) This time, it was Jim Allchin,
the vice president of Microsoft's Platforms Group.
Less
than a week earlier, Allchin denied that source code for "Whistler", the
future consumer-focused version of Windows, had appeared on the Internet
at the "Active Windows" website (http://www.activewin.com). Whoops! Now
he says it really is/was on the Internet, and MS is investigating the
incident to see how the code got to Active Windows in the first place.
Market Impact
The immediate impact to the marketplace is minimal. What is more interesting
is trying to determine how Whistler ended up on the 'Net in the first
place.
We
see four possibilities at present:
- "Piracy" by a current/former Microsoft employee
We believe this is the likeliest scenario. We expect there just may
be someone, somewhere (now or formerly) inside of MS who may be just
a teensy bit less loyal to the corporation than Messrs. Allchin, Gates,
Ballmer, et al. As surveys have shown over the years, computer sabotage
has been (until recently) more likely to come from inside a company
than outside. Recent DDOS attacks have changed the rules of the game
a little, of course. (60% probability)
- Screw-up by someone at Microsoft
This is the type of thing happens to political campaigns - someone
faxes a key document to a reporter, instead of their remote campaign
office. Although it is interesting to speculate on how such an occurrence
might take place, we think this is the least likely scenario. (10%
probability)
- Piracy by an outsider (excluding ex-Microsofties)
We consider this to be the next-least likely scenario. Although Windows
is not noted for its security features, we believe the hurdles one
would have to surmount to do this undetected are pretty high. (15%
probability)
- Planned action by Microsoft
Conspiracy theorists love this scenario. Instead of pulling the pre-announce
routine (e.g., Windows NT 5.0 was once expected to ship in 1998),
this is a more subtle tactic. By "accidentally" allowing the source
to be available on the 'Net,' the general public can say, "Wow, looks
like Whistler is almost ready to go, maybe they're shipping early,
etc. etc." While we don't really think Microsoft has stooped to that
level, we understand why people might think that way. (15% probability)
If this was in fact a ploy by MS, some early effects (delay/suppression
of OS buying decisions) will be felt, but these will not be significant.
The real impact of Whistler will not be felt until 2001. At that point,
the convergence of the NT and Win 9x kernels will result in consolidation
of Microsoft's OS structure/offerings, and will provide a blueprint for
how Microsoft's OS fortunes will proceed in the ensuing years. Of course,
the DOJ antitrust trial is still not finished - the outcome of a ruling
or settlement may change the playing field enough that the effect of Whistler's
introduction will be decreased significantly.
User
Recommendations
For the general situation of Microsoft's series of 180-degree turns, the
best thing a customer can do is sit back, get a bowl of popcorn/chips/pick-your-favorite-snack,
and enjoy the show. One wag has even suggested a betting pool on whose
statement is reversed next.
For
the more serious matter of Whistler/Win2001: the convergence of Windows
onto the NT kernel will be a good thing for users. Although the NT kernel
is not without faults, it is far more robust than the Win 9x kernel, and
lack of robustness is one of the key complaints about Windows. The big
caveat is Microsoft's tendency to either delay schedules, or de-feature
the OS to remain on schedule, or both. Windows 2000 was a prime example
of this. We think it prudent for customers to expect that Whistler will
not be delivered when "everyone" is assuming it will be delivered. Customers
should take this into account when scheduling OS purchasing/upgrade decisions.
There
is insufficient detail regarding planned features to determine if upgrading
to Whistler will be more like Windows 98 (mild feature change, mild impact)
or like Windows 2000 (major feature change, major impact). Until further
details are available, we think it prudent for customers not committed
to the "latest Windows version no matter what" to proceed cautiously.