R.
Krause - April 26th, 2000
Event
Summary
On Monday, 3 April 2000, U.S. District Court Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson
ruled that Microsoft [NASDAQ:MSFT] had violated Federal antitrust laws.
The decision followed several weeks of intense negotiations between Microsoft
and the U.S. Department of Justice. In the ruling, Jackson stated that
"Microsoft placed an oppressive thumb on the scale of competitive fortune,
thereby effectively guaranteeing its own continued dominance in the relevant
market."
Furthermore,
the judge noted "Microsoft's campaign succeeded in preventing - for several
years, and perhaps permanently - Navigator and Java from fulfilling their
potential to open the market for Intel-compatible PC operating systems
to competition on the merits."
The
decision, which was not a surprise, followed Jackson's November 1999 Findings
of Fact. In the findings, Judge Jackson declared, "Microsoft has demonstrated
that it will use its prodigious market power and immense profits to harm
any firm that insists on pursuing initiatives that could intensify competition
against one of Microsoft's core products." He also found that Microsoft
had caused immediate and far-reaching harm to consumers.
Microsoft's
stock price, which had risen in late March on speculation of a negotiated
settlement, plunged almost 20% - from 106 5/8 on 31 March to 85 1/8 by
the end of the following week. Judge Jackson has set May 24 for a hearing
on penalties, setting the stage for a court-ordered breakup of the software
titan and a direct appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.
In
the wake of the ruling, Microsoft has taken its case directly to the American
public. Bill Gates is the centerpiece of new television ads, which debuted
on 6 April 2000. In the ads, Gates states that he started Microsoft to
"harness the power of the PC to improve people's lives." And in another
move reminiscent of political campaigns, Microsoft had begun conducting
opinion tracking polls.
Market
Impact
Enough about the stock prices here - the key thing to look at is what
remedies the judge will propose.
Most indications on the settlement talks suggest that Microsoft offered
too little - an offer to open up the Windows source code, allowing PC
makers to customize the Windows desktop, licensing Windows - to placate
the Department of Justice. Microsoft has reorganized internally, dividing
the company into three divisions - Windows, business applications, and
consumer/Internet.
Judge
Jackson has now spoken twice, in extremely harsh tones, about Microsoft,
using words such as "violent" and "predatory" to describe the company.
Although the ruling doesn't specifically indicate any possible remedies,
it is reasonable to presume that the harshest possible remedy - breaking
up the company - remains a viable scenario.
In
the face of all this, Microsoft continues to display the same arrogance
shown by Gates in his video deposition. No judge likes that. In any event,
the remedies will be on Judge Jackson's terms and not Microsoft's. Barring
a settlement, we forecast a breakup as the most likely scenario (60% likelihood).
User
Recommendations
Watch and wait. At a minimum, Microsoft will be distracted for the remainder
of the legal process. Software ship dates and quality can be expected
to slip accordingly.
If
you use any products competitive to Microsoft - AOL's Netscape Navigator,
Red Hat Linux - remember that these companies should be eager for your
business. Press them hard for the best possible deal.